Climate Change

An appropriate topic for any discussion of lawfare, whether lawsuits alleging violation of existing laws or legislation leading to new law, is the issue of standards of evidence.

Standards of evidence refer to the amount of evidence or certainty required to prove a fact or claim in legal cases. The three primary standards of proof are:

1. Proof beyond a reasonable doubt
2. Preponderance of the evidence
3. Clear and convincing evidence

The State of California sued several major oil and gas companies and the American Petroleum Institute (API) in 2023, accusing the companies of lying about the effects of the use of their products on the climate and seeking compensation for alleged damages and state investment in climate adaptation. The state lawsuit is a variation on the theme ”Exxon knew”, which has been unsuccessful in numerous similar lawsuits, including a lawsuit by New Jersey. More recently, legislation was introduced to provide a path for insurance companies and individuals to sue the companies for damages resulting from wildfires.

Wildfires are a special case, in that they cannot be caused by climate change. Rather, there is clear and convincing evidence that wildfires require a source of ignition at a temperature above the ignition temperature of the available combustible material and possessing sufficient energy to raise the temperature of the available combustible material above its ignition temperature. The common natural source of ignition is lightning. However, faulty electric transmission and distribution infrastructure, accidental spread of cooking and campfires from homeless encampments and intentional arson are also common sources of ignition which cause wildfires.

California has experienced more than 200,000 wildfires in the period since 1878. Relatively accurate records are available after 1925 which show a dramatic decrease in acres burned through 1983, followed by a slow increase largely resulting from electric spark and human ignition, aggravated by poor forest management practices, beyond a reasonable doubt. Most of these wildfires occurred before global warming and climate change became a significant issue.

The preponderance of the evidence surrounding the recent Pacific Palisades and Eaton wildfires establishes that the damage caused by the fires was aggravated by failure to pre-position firefighting resources in anticipation of forecasted severe Santa Ana winds, the unavailability of water in the nearby Santa Ynez reservoir, low water pressure and numerous non-functional fire hydrants in the immediate area of the fires.

The preponderance of the evidence, as collected and analyzed by the IPCC in its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, Chapter 12) indicates no linkage between global warming and climate change and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, with the exception of heat waves, or wildfires.

California has made numerous bad decisions regarding wildfires, including abandoning aggressive forest management projects and failing to build and fill additional reservoirs. Governor Newsom also disbanded a National Guard highly trained volunteer fire service.

Regardless of the above, California has focused the “blame game” on major oil and gas companies and the API, largely because the industry represents “deep pockets” which could help fund the recovery efforts from the recent fires.

From: IER

Date: January, 2025

POLICY BRIEF: American Energy Blueprint

Summary

The American Energy Blueprint is a comprehensive set of policy recommendations to guide the new Trump administration's approach to energy policy. The Blueprint outlines key reforms in areas such as federal land and water use, expanding consumer choice, reducing subsidies, curbing government spending and taxation, streamlining regulations, and modernizing the permitting process.

Federal Lands and Waters

The Biden administration launched an unprecedented attack on energy development on federal lands. From restricting land use to slowing or halting permitting approvals and raising fees, the administration did seemingly everything to make energy development on federal lands more difficult and more expensive as part of its pledge to “end fossil fuels.” The Trump administration should take swift action to reverse these actions and Congress should update statutes to ensure such abuse cannot happen again in the future.

Administrative Actions:

• Reverse restrictive Biden actions in ANWR and NPR-A, and revoke other Alaska land-use limitations on energy and minerals. Alaska is over twice the size of Texas; two-thirds of it is federally owned and 86% of it is inaccessible by road.
• Reverse the illegal denial of an access road to Alaska’s Ambler Mining District, one of the U.S.’s most potentially prolific sources of valuable rare earth minerals.
• The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management should proceed with Lease Sale 262 in 2025, as planned, and create a new, more comprehensive Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) five-year leasing program, including at least two lease sales per year in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). With the current OCS five-year leasing program under litigation, the administration should request a voluntary remand to resolve all pending petitions.
• Release a new offshore leasing plan.
• Approve permits for new mines.
• Executive order to reconsider all Biden administration decisions on land withdrawals from energy or mining leasing.
• Reverse the Biden actions requiring higher fees and costs for production in certain areas.
• Review, reverse, and shrink Biden and Obama-era national monument designations. (continue reading)

POLICY BRIEF: American Energy Blueprint

The Clean Air Act (CAA) became law in 1970. It was later amended in 1970 and 1990. Congress considered including CO2 emissions under the Act but elected not to do so both during debate on the Act and during debates on the amendments.

Massachusetts and several other states and cities petitioned EPA to regulate greenhouse gases under the CAA because they were “pollutants”. EPA rejected the petition because it was not authorized to regulate greenhouse gases under the CAA. In 2007, Massachusetts and several other states and cities sued EPA at the US Supreme Court to have EPA regulate greenhouse gases under the CAA. The Supreme Court ruled that EPA could regulate greenhouse gases under the CAA because they were “pollutants”. This ruling ignored the clear intent of Congress regarding the CAA.

US EPA issued an Endangerment Finding (EF) in 2009 regarding emissions of six key well mixed “greenhouse gases”. carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). The EF was originally targeted at motor vehicle emissions. However, EPA has used it as the basis to control emissions from stationary sources as well.

The CAA requires EPA to base its actions on its own research. However, EPA relied on IPCC as the source of its research results. The EF was not based on observations, but rather on the output of computer models which themselves have proven to be inaccurate and largely unfit for purpose.

The CAA requires EPA to issue National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for pollutants subject to an EF. EPA has failed to issue the NAAQS for CO2 in the 16 years since the EF was issued. Development of an NAAQS for a “globally well-mixed trace gas” whose atmospheric concentration is increasing, largely driven by emissions from other nations, would be a monumental challenge, as would administering it.

The endangerment identified by EPA remains unfound in those 16 years. Public health and safety have not been diminished as a consequence of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Heat-related deaths remain an order of magnitude lower than cold-related deaths. The frequency and severity of extreme weather events have not increased. The rate of sea level rise has not increased. The globe has greened, largely as a result of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Crop yields have continued to increase, in part as the result of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

Research conducted by numerous research teams over the 16 years since the issuance of the EF suggests that the endangerment envisioned by the EPA EF was largely overblown. The climate is not as sensitive to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations as the EF envisioned. Warming is not occurring as rapidly as reported by the “adjusted” near-surface temperature records or projected by the unverified and unvalidated climate models.

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin has recommended to President Trump that the 2009 EF be re-evaluated and either revised or rescinded. This action would not conflict with the 2007 Supreme Court decision, since the Court merely ruled that EPA could regulate CO2 under the CAA, not that it was required to do so.

From: Climate Etc.

By: Russ Schussler

Date: January 30, 2025

How the Green Energy Narrative confuses things

Prequel to “Unravelling the narrative supporting a green energy transition.”

There is a powerful but misleading narrative supporting a green energy transition. A follow up piece will look more broadly at the general narrative supporting a transition to net zero.  This prequel will provide some detail on a few  components of the energy narrative and how this misleading narrative was established. The green energy narrative works somewhat like a magician’s patter, overemphasizing many things of irrelevance and distracting the audience from the important things going on. Misdirection ensures small truths are misinterpreted and magnified, leading to completely unrealistic hopes and expectations.

Misleading green narratives often start with Academics. As I noted here:

Overwhelmingly the academic articles I read are good. Usually, the authors carefully describe the limitations of their findings and recommendations. Sometimes they hint as to what remains to be worked out. I’m afraid this does not stop individuals, the media, and some policy makers from ignoring the qualifications and limitations inherent in their findings. The situation is worse when they leave it to the reader to ferret out the limitations of their findings. In very rare instances some academics will go beyond what has been demonstrated with exaggerated claims. I don’t know if this is done through ignorance, accident, hubris or for purposes of self-advancement.

For example, there have been many simple studies examining how much energy might be produced by a green resource, or set of green resources, such as wind and solar power. These studies ignore important issues such as  deliverability, timing, reliability and costs. Based on simple studies the media, activists and policy makers frequently  conclude that such resources can be used near universally on a large scale to provide electric service to consumers effectively, efficiently and economically. (continue reading)

How the Green Energy Narrative confuses things

The IPCC Summary for Policymakers asserts that climate change is causing more frequent and more intense extreme weather events, including tropical cyclones, tornadoes, droughts, floods and heat waves; and, that climate change is increasing the loss and damage these events cause. These assertions are repeated frequently by the US Secretary General, other members of the UN Secretariat and numerous national leaders. The UN Secretary General combines these assertions with a variety of hyperbolic descriptions of the current situation. Interestingly, these assertions regarding causation are not supported by the analyses of IPCC Working Group I. However, they are widely accepted and repeated by the global media.

The UN and numerous of its member nations have requested that the International Court of Justice (ICJ) rule on the legal obligations of governments regarding reducing CO2 emissions to limit the climate change they are accused of causing. While an ICJ ruling would be advisory in nature, it would likely be “played up” by the UN secretariat and the media as requiring “greater ambition” on the part of global governments to reduce CO2 emissions. Nations failing to adhere to the ICJ ruling would likely be accused of Ecocide and subjected to additional lawfare.

Extreme weather events have occurred throughout history. The loss and damage they cause has increased over time, largely as the result increasing infrastructure investment, land use changes and GDP growth. Roger Pielke, Jr. and others have determined that when loss and damage from extreme weather events are adjusted for growth in GDP, the trend lines are flat or slightly negative, indicating that climate change is not exacerbating the effects of the weather events.

Tropical cyclones are an interesting case in point. While there is a defined “tornado season” during which they normally occur, we do not know when a disturbance will occur, whether a particular disturbance will develop into a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane/typhoon. We also do not know the track a particular storm will follow or whether it will eventually make landfall and, if so, at what intensity. These uncertainties make it effectively impossible to identify and quantify the extent to which any particular storm might have been affected by climate change, though the purveyors of Attribution Analysis assert that they are able to do so. The damage caused by a storm is a function of its intensity, its track and the value and durability of the infrastructure in its path.

Flooding is another interesting case. Flooding can result from heavy precipitation and/or from storm surge associated with storms offshore. Each conversion of landscape (exposed soil) to hardscape (buildings, parking lots, roads and sidewalks, etc.) increases the runoff resulting from heavy rains and increases the geographical extent of storm surge. The likelihood of flooding increases if facilities to handle runoff are not expanded as the percentage of hardscaped surface increases.

Numerous Pacific Island nations have expressed concerns about the potential effects of rising sea levels. However, sea level has been rising since the trough of the Little Ice Age, prior to the increase in anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The rate of rise of sea level has not increased as the result of climate change according to the tide gauge records. The area of most of these islands has increased or remained stable as sea level has increased.

From: JD Supra

By: Alan Claus Anderson, Andrew Schulte, Christine Soares

Date: January 23, 2025

What President Trump’s Energy Plan Means for the State Regulatory Environment, the Generation Mix and Electric Transmission

Signaling the prioritization of energy, President Donald Trump declared a national energy emergency on inauguration day. He issued several Executive Orders (EO) and Presidential Memoranda either unwinding the Biden administration’s energy policies or entering his own Orders to address what he described as inadequate energy supply in the United States and to encourage the expedient development of fossil fuel resources. Here, we will outline the key Orders and what they mean for the state regulatory environment, generation mix and electric transmission construction.

The Rescissions
Let’s start with the rescissions. President Trump revoked most of President Biden’s EOs and Presidential Memoranda on energy matters, some of which were entered in the weeks before he left office. The following is a summary of the key rescissions:

• EO 13990 of January 20, 2021 (Protecting Public Health and the Environment and Restoring Science to Tackle the Climate Crisis) entered on President Biden’s first day in office. The Order revoked the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline, established an Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases and directed federal agencies to support a transition to clean energy.
• EO 14008 of January 27, 2021 (Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad) that paused “new oil and natural gas leases on public lands or in offshore waters pending completion of a comprehensive review and reconsideration of Federal oil and gas permitting and leasing practices.”
• EO 14057 of December 8, 2021 (Catalyzing Clean Energy Industries and Jobs Through Federal Sustainability) setting forth the policy of achieving a carbon pollution-free electricity sector by 2035 and net-zero emissions economy-wide by no later than 2050.

(continue reading)

What President Trump’s Energy Plan Means for the State Regulatory Environment, the Generation Mix and Electric Transmission

The consensed climate science community and their allies in government, environmental organizations and the media are focused on Net Zero by 2050.  They assert that solar and wind can power an economical, stable and reliable electric grid and that all energy end uses can be powered electrically. Neither of those assertions has been demonstrated, nor is there a plan to achieve Net Zero by 2050.

However, there are numerous cautionary tales which should cause them to question their assertions. Two relatively small and relatively isolated communities built their electric systems to rely on renewable generation plus storage. Both have failed to achieve stability and reliability.

El Heirro in the Canary Islands built a system consisting of wind turbines and a pumped hydro storage reservoir system. The system, designed to provide all of the island’s electricity, has averaged approximately 50% and has required backup from a diesel generator system. The island does not have the potential to replace its non-electric energy consumption with additional electricity generation which would require more than quadrupling the island’s generating and storage capacity.

The community of Broken Hill NSW, Australia has a 36 MW load which is served by ~200 MW of wind capacity,,~60 MW  of solar PV and ~50 MW / 100 MWh battery storage system, plus backup diesel turbine generators. While Broken Hill had more than adequate generating capacity, it experienced blackouts when it lost connection to the larger grid, which provided reliability services. While generating capacity is ~7 times load, storage capacity is woefully inadequate.

Every jurisdiction which has installed renewable generation has experienced increased electricity rates and the rates have continued to increase as the percentage of renewable generation has increased. The UK and Germany have both experienced electric rate increases by a factor of 3-4, which have made many of their industries uncompetitive and have caused energy poverty to spread among their populations.

California has the highest electric rates of the contiguous 48 states and frequently produces excess solar generation which must be sold at discounted prices or wasted, while it must also import electricity during periods of high demand.  California’s storage capacity is woefully inadequate to time shift generation to periods of high demand.

Numerous states on the US East Coast have had offshore wind installations cancelled because the existing contracts had become uneconomic. Recent proposed contracts are for delivered wholesale electricity prices 3-4 times the current wholesale cost of electricity in the states.

It is highly likely that the Trump Administration will dramatically reduce or eliminate the federal subsidies for renewable generation, particularly offshore wind, and for grid-scale storage. It is also highly likely that the Trump Administration will reduce or eliminate subsidies and incentives for residential and commercial gas to electric appliance and equipment conversions to achieve “all-electric everything”.

Industries which depend on federal or state subsidies and incentives are subject to changes in the political priorities of the current political administrations, as well as the interest of the buying public in their products and services. The buying public has clearly lost some of its enthusiasm for electric vehicles and the all-electric everything transition.

From: The Honest Broker - Substack

By: Mike Hulme

Date: January 13, 2025

From Idealism to Realism

This is a guest post by Mike Hulme, Professor of Human geography at Cambridge University. Mike is one of the world’s most accomplished climate scientists. Hulme participated in the IPCC second and third assessments, was part of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, where he subsequently founded the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at UEA. He has been at Cambridge University since 2017. Mike and I are long-time collaborators, and we co-authored The Hartwell Paper (2009). Mike’s publication record is expansive and involves many collaborators around the world. He maintains an active website where you can find his research and commentary. Now over to Mike . . . —Roger Pielke Jr.

Geopolitics, History and Climate Change: A Personal View[1]

Mike Hulme, University of Cambridge

“To think that we can draw some useful analogies from history dramatically underestimates the novelty and scale of the climate challenge.”[2]

“In the contest between geopolitics and sustainable climate policies, the former takes precedence.”[3]

Starting in the early 1980s, I have spent my entire professional life studying climate change, as well as teaching, writing and speaking about it in universities, conferences, and public forums around the world—in 43 countries at the latest count. With such a professional and personal investment in the idea of climate change, it is not surprising that for a long period I uncritically absorbed the notion that climate change represented the pre-eminent challenge facing humanity in the twenty-first century.

Since first immersing myself in the topic in the 1980s, and subsequently being part of the scientific and public story of climate change in the 1990s and 2000s[4], I was easily convinced that the growing human influence on the world’s climate would be a reality that all nations would increasingly need to confront, a reality to which their interests would necessarily be subservient and that would be decisive for shaping their development pathways. For more than half of these 40 or so years, it seemed to me self-evident that relations between nations would forcibly be re-shaped by the exigencies of a changing climate.

But now, in the mid-2020s, I can see that I got this the wrong way round. And I can also see why this was so. Rather than geopolitics having to bend to the realities of a changing climate, the opposite has happened. The unyielding force of political realism—the pursuit of the changing and unpredictable interests of nations and great powers—means that the framing, significance, and responses to climate change need continually to adapt to shifting geopolitical realities. Except that too often they haven’t. Whilst the world’s climate has undoubtedly changed over these 40 years, the geopolitics, demography, and culture of the world has changed even more.[5] Too often the language, rhetoric, and campaigning around climate change remains wedded to a world that no longer exists. (continue reading)

From Idealism to Realism

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties 21 (COP21) in Paris, France produced the Paris Accords, a non-binding agreement under which the participating nations agreed to take actions necessary to achieve a goal of Net Zero CO2 emissions by 2050. The developed nations of the world have undertaken various efforts to proceed toward that goal and have reduced their CO2 emissions with varying levels of success over the past 9 years. However, global annual CO2 emissions have continued to increase, largely due to rapid growth in fossil fuel consumption in the developing nations, led by China, India and Indonesia among others.

The continuing increases in global CO2 emissions have made it obvious that the globe is not going to achieve Net Zero by 2050. However, the developed nations are now beginning to realize that they are not going to achieve Net Zero by 2050 either. Their efforts so far have increased government debt, increased electricity prices, spread energy poverty, threatened the reliability of their electric grids, encouraged de-industrialization and left them flailing around seeking workable solutions.

It has become increasingly clear that, while the developed nations adopted the Net Zero by 2050 goal, none of them have developed a detailed plan to achieve the goal, nor have any of them analyzed in detail the cost of achieving the goal. Also, none of them has demonstrated that the transition to renewable generation they are pursuing would lead to a stable, reliable and economical energy economy. In spending hundreds of billions of dollars in pursuit of the goal without a plan or a demonstration, they have clearly “put the cart before the horse”.

Several individuals and organizations have suggested demonstration programs to no avail. More recently it has been suggested that rigorous engineering planning efforts might substitute for demonstration programs. Such engineering plans would begin with an analysis of the projected load on each grid in 2050 after an all-electric transition, with an allowance for market growth and economic development. The planning teams would then analyze the current grid and the generation which serves it and would be replaced, identifying areas where new generation capacity could be installed and the transmission enhancements necessary to move the output of the new generation to market. The planners would then determine the technology mix and capacity of the new generation assets to be installed.

The generation technologies evaluated would include intermittent renewable generators such as solar and wind, as well as dispatchable generators such as nuclear, hydro and geothermal. The intermittent generation capacity would require procurement and installation of storage capacity sufficient to render the intermittent generation dispatchable or installation of additional dispatchable capacity sufficient to replace the output of the intermittent generators when they were unavailable.

Storage technologies to be evaluated would include short-duration, medium-duration and long-duration battery storage, pumped hydro and Green Hydrogen. This component of the planning process would be greatly complicated by the fact that medium-duration and long-duration battery storage systems are not currently available, that pumped hydro systems are very location specific and subject to significant local resistance, and that no plan for the production, transmission, storage and utilization of Green Hydrogen currently exists.

The planning process would then prepare a detailed schedule for the transition. Each new generation site would be identified, the generation technologies to be sited there determined, their capacity established, the transmission interconnection designed and the cost of the installed and interconnected capacity calculated. An installation schedule which replaced the existing generation and kept pace with demand and consumption growth resulting from the all-electric transition would be prepared. Transmission and distribution system enhancements to accommodate the new generation and storage capacity installations and the anticipated load growth would be scheduled and costed.
I believe that such detailed plans, developed by corporations experienced with utility construction projects would determine that achieving Net Zero by 2050 reliably and economically in the developed nations would be as implausible as it is unnecessary.

“A goal without a plan is just a wish.”, Antoine de St. Exupery

From: edmhdotme

By: Ed Hoskins

Date: January 15, 2025

Negligible future warming from: CO2 – CH4 – N2O

At the current concentration of atmospheric CO2 at ~420 ppmv, (parts per million by volume), is at a low level in comparison with levels in past eons when plants evolved. At this concentration Co2 is already ~85%+ saturated.  

The Global warming potential of any added atmospheric CO2, whether natural or Man-made, is already virtually exhausted.

At its current concentration atmospheric CO2 at ~420 ppmv even doubling to 840 ppm would cause little additional warming, amounting approximately to a ~1% effect applied to ~33°C total Greenhouse effect or ~0.33°C.

The added level of CO2 increase would be a huge benefit to the biosphere and agriculture.

All attempts by Mankind to limit further CO2 emissions or other Greenhouse gasses will have no further controlling effect on Global temperature.

Any further actions by any minority of Western Nations to avoid a supposed Global Overheating Catastrophe by reducing their emissions of Greenhouse Gas are simply self-harming and pointless.

These facts entirely negate the obsessive need to pursue Net Zero policies at all.

(continue reading)

Negligible future warming from: CO2 – CH4 – N2O

The US and most of the developed nations have set various energy and climate goals, either in legislation or by executive action. These goals are typically intended to achieve Net Zero by 2050. Goals were set for specific sectors of their economies. In the US, these included achieving net zero emissions in the electric sector by 2035 and banning the sale of fossil fueled vehicles and residential and commercial appliances and equipment by 2035. Oil and gas lease sales were cancelled or delayed, restrictions were placed on oil and gas exploration and production on oil and gas pipelines were denied approval.

The common approach was to replace fossil fuel electric generation with wind and solar generation. Some governments also chose to eliminate nuclear generation and replace it with wind and solar. This approach deprived electric utilities and their regulators of the freedom to select the mix of generation technologies which best supported the demand and consumption characteristics of their markets.

Massive subsidies and incentives were offered to encourage investment in wind and solar generation, largely to the exclusion of the investments in storage necessary for intermittent renewable generation to replace fossil generation in a stable and reliable electric grid, rather than merely displace a portion of the output of the fossil generators. The failure to invest in sufficient storage deprived the utilities of the freedom to retire the fossil generators, since they were needed to back up the intermittent renewables. This also resulted in significant increases in electricity costs.

The goals for elimination of fossil fueled vehicles were intended to deprive vehicle manufacturers of the freedom to produce the vehicles their customers preferred and to deprive customers of the freedom to purchase the vehicles they preferred. Significant incentives were offered to manufacturers to produce electric vehicles and to customers to purchase them. Significant funding was also committed to incentivize and support the installation of public electric vehicle charging infrastructure.

The goals for elimination of fossil fueled appliances and equipment were intended to deprive purchasers of the freedom to select the appliances and equipment which best suited their needs. Significant incentives were offered in some nations for the replacement of gas boilers with electric heat pumps. However, the incentives proved insufficient to offset the much higher installed cost of the heat pumps and the higher operating costs resulting from electric rate increases. There were also pilot programs proposed to convert existing natural gas distribution systems and end use appliances and equipment to operate on Hydrogen. Those pilot programs were abandoned after strong consumer resistance.

The new US Administration appears poised to terminate the range of programs put in place in support of the Net Zero goal and to restore the freedoms they threatened. The Administration proposals are not intended deprive utilities of the freedom to choose renewable generation or to deprive consumers of the freedom to choose electric vehicles, electric heat pumps or other electric appliances and equipment. However, it is likely that the subsidies and incentives which had been offered will disappear or be dramatically reduced.

While the energy and climate goals have had significant impacts on the economies of the developed nations which have adopted them and would continue to have massive further impacts on those economies, it has become clear that there are no plans in place to achieve the goals. Several recent non-government planning exercises suggest that achievement of the goals which have been established is implausible, especially in the timeframes which have been established for their achievement.

From: Conflicted - Substack

By: Jessica Weinkle

Date: January 9, 2025

Bias
Undisclosed conflicts of interest are a serious problem in the climate change literature

A flurry of commentary on bias indicates the depths of the conflicts of interest problem in climate change research.

Yesterday, Patrick Brown at The Breakthrough Institute had a great write up walking us through a cascade of bias in extreme weather attribution studies, the body of literature supporting it, and the media reporting on it.

Patrick names the following biases: Occurrence Bias, Choice Bias, Publication Bias, and Media Coverage Bias.

Patrick’s work comes on the heals of an essay series “Weather Attribution Alchemy” by Roger Pielke Jr. at The Honest Broker. In his most recent post to the series, Roger names: Selection bias, Misrepresentation of the statistics, and the Fallacy of begging the question.

Bias is a distortion of science that results in unreliable knowledge. Distorted science is socially, economically, and politically costly to society.

Here, I will situate these findings of bias in the extreme weather event attribution literature under the broader heading of researcher conflicts of interest (COI), a major topic of concern for research ethics.

Bias as an outcome of researcher conflicts of interest is relevant here for two reasons.

First the methods, organizations, and researchers that advance extreme weather event attribution are inherently tied to litigation and advocacy.

Second, the situation is symptomatic of a far deeper and widespread problem of poor author conflicts of interest disclosure practices throughout the climate change science literature.

Let’s take this in pieces. (continue reading)

Bias
Undisclosed conflicts of interest are a serious problem in the climate change literature

Government funded climate research has had a heavy focus on “tactical research” intended to support a government narrative or justify climate policies. This research has produced a “veritable plethora” (HT: Howard Cosell) of scary potential future climate change scenarios. This research has relied upon ”adjusted” global temperature measurements, extreme Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5), high climate sensitivities, positive climate feedbacks and unvalidated and unverified climate models. The intent of this research has been to scare the public regarding the potential future effects of climate change and to encourage the public to accept and comply with government climate policies.

Regrettably, this approach to government funded climate science, while useful in producing media headlines, has diverted attention from research necessary to improve our understanding of climate and weather. Much remains unsettled regarding the “settled science” of climate and climate change. It would be prudent to understand climate before committing $ trillions to remaking our energy economy.

The fundamental concerns regarding climate change are increasing near-surface temperatures and sea level rise. Significant uncertainties persist regarding both.

Near surface temperatures are measured at a large number so locations using a variety of instruments and instrument enclosures. A recent survey in the US suggests that approximately 96% of US measuring stations are producing erroneous measurements as the result of location, instrument calibration or instrument housing deterioration. It is reasonable to assume that the measuring stations in other countries are similarly affected. Some areas still remain unmeasured.

The US Climate Reference Network (CRN) uses three identical sets of carefully sited and installed measuring equipment at each site to provide accurate, UHI-free temperature measurements. However, this system has not been adopted globally, so a high percentage of temperature measurements are “adjusted’ using various methods of uncertain provenance. Recent studies suggest that approximately 40% of the calculated US temperature anomaly is attributable to UHI. Other global measuring sites are likely similarly affected.

Climate science currently uses a range of climate sensitivities to greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere because the actual sensitivity value is unknown. Climate science also uses a range of values for climate feedbacks because the actual values are also unknown. Finally, analyses are conducted with numerous climate models, none of which has demonstrated that it actually models the climate. Research to identify the actual values of these parameters and to validate a single climate model which actually models the real climate is clearly necessary.

Government places great significance on the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC), which is a very malleable estimate of the future damage which might be caused by climate change. However, government apparently ignores the social benefits of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Several studies suggest that the SCC is currently negative and would likely remain so for the foreseeable future.

There also remain several natural phenomena which affect weather and climate which remain inadequately understood and justify further research including the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, ENSO and other elements of the global water cycle. Further research is also warranted on the effects of sub-oceanic vents and volcanoes. This research might also assist in understanding the many factors which affect the development, frequency, intensity and path of tropical cyclones.

Sea level rise has been occurring since the trough of the Little Ice Age. Since the implementation of tide gauges to measure sea level, there has been a relatively continuous rise in sea level, with no indication of acceleration associated with global warming. Sea level is now also measured by satellites and the satellite data is believed to show some modest acceleration in the rate of sea level rise. There remains a significant and unresolved difference in the rates of sea level measured by the tide gauges and the satellites, which is also a subject for further research.

It is clearly past time to shift from tactical climate studies to serious climate research.

From: ZeroHedge

By: Tyler Durden

Date: January 8, 2025

People Are Catching On To The Truth

Authored by Chris Martenson via PeakProsperity.com,

Is Biden Trying To Destroy The US’s Energy Future?
Energy is THE master resource.  Have that and everything is possible.  Without it, nothing is possible.

The level of sheer petulance on display by the Biden administration on their way our to door is staggering.  They’ve tried and failed, thankfully, to kick of WW III by lobbing long-range missiles into Russia.  They treated the Western North Carolina hurricane victims so horribly, and continue to do so, that it’s a miracle that hasn’t erupted into violence.  They ran an extremely poorly conducted drones-over-Jersey PsyOp.

Then Biden pardoned some of the worst possible people on the planet, including a judge that shanghaied kids into a prison-for-profit program for infuriatingly stingy kickbacks given the fact that some of the kids committed suicide as a result, and lives were derailed and ruined in all cases.

The two terror incidents were immediately utilized as weapons-grade PsyOps by who knows which over-funded “intelligence” agencies to distract and divide and divert civilian attention while they dialed-for-dollars in a new political landscape where their relevance may have suddenly come into question.

But all of that pales in comparison to the truly stunning attempts by the Biden administration (which we still have no idea who or what we’re really speaking of when we type that out) to hamstring American’s access to affordable, reliable energy and efficient equipment.

The headlines begin with Biden invoking the 1952 Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act, meaning Trump would need Congressional involvement to reverse this action:(continue reading)

People Are Catching On To The Truth

Current US climate policy is aligned with the UN climate objectives embodied in the 2015 Paris Accords. It is focused on Net Zero by 2050, “All-electric Everything” by 2050, ending the use of fossil fuels, transitioning to an electric grid powered by wind and solar and a transportation system reliant on electric vehicles. Current policies provide substantial incentives for wind and solar generation, electricity storage, electric vehicles and electric heat pumps. Fundamental to these policies is the 2007 Supreme Court finding that CO2 is a pollutant and the 2009 EPA Endangerment Finding regarding CO2.

The incoming Trump Administration is not supportive of the UN climate objectives. It has several climate and energy policy revision priorities it intends to pursue rapidly and aggressively. Its first action is likely to be withdrawal from the Paris Accords and cessation of funding of the UN Green Climate Fund. The Administration is being encouraged to submit the Paris Accords to the Senate as a treaty, which the Senate would almost certainly fail to approve.

The Administration is also likely to seek reversal of the EPA Endangerment Finding which is not in compliance with the requirements of the Clean Air Act under which it was issued. The CAA requires EPA to rely on its own research (not the IPCC) and to issue a National Ambient Air Quality Standard for CO2, which has not been done in the 15 years since the Finding. The Administration might also seek to reverse the Supreme Court finding in the wake of the Court’s Chevron Deference position. The Administration will also seek withdrawal of the EPA Powerplant Rule which would require installation of CCS systems on coal and natural gas electric generators or their retirement.

The Trump Administration will seek to eliminate or drastically reduce incentives for electric grid conversion to renewable generation, for electric vehicles and charging infrastructure, and for natural gas and propane appliance and equipment replacement with electric appliances and equipment. These incentives are currently being debt funded, adding to current government deficits and the national debt. The incentives for parallel electric grid infrastructure and for parallel vehicle charging infrastructure add to inflation as they unnecessarily duplicate existing infrastructure without increasing utility. These incentives also distort markets, placing existing businesses in competition with government incentivized businesses.

The Trump Administration will also seek to get government out of the way of US fossil energy exploration and production activities. It will resume the legally required oil and gas lease sales on federal land and offshore. The Administration will also attempt to reverse the recent Biden ban on offshore oil and gas exploration and production  It will likely support oil and gas pipeline construction, including the Keystone XL pipeline, and end the current moratorium on LNG sales.

The previous Trump Administration ended the practice of “sue and settle” used by US EPA to resolve issues in its favor in cooperation with environmental advocacy groups. The practice was resumed under the current Administration and has metastasized to other agencies. Trump will again end the practice and might attempt to have it banned by law to prevent its readoption in the future.

The new Department of Government Efficiency will likely seek to make significant impacts on US EPA and US DOE, as well as on NOAA and NASA GISS, regarding their involvement in climate and energy policy.