Contract Requirements - ORIGINAL CONTENT

“Nobody’s honest. Scientists are not honest. And people usually believe that they are. That makes it worse. By honest I don’t mean that you only tell what’s true. But you make clear the entire situation. You make clear all the information that is required for somebody else who is intelligent to make up their mind”  — Richard Feynman “The Unscientific Age”

The Trump Administration has paused funding of climate research to allow it to develop a comprehensive inventory of the projects being funded and their importance from the Administrations perspective. The responses to this pause have ranged from concerns that the US is ending climate research and will forfeit its global research leadership position to concerns about the effects on researchers’ careers and the future of graduate research programs.

It is very likely that numerous “tactical” research programs intended to support the climate crisis narrative will be terminated, since supporting the crisis narrative is of no interest to the Administration. While the organizations directly funding those programs and the researchers conducting them will be affected, the loss of those programs will have little or no impact on our understanding of climate. There is already no shortage of computer model generated “scary scenarios” depicting potential future climate calamities. Many of these “scary scenarios” were developed based on high climate sensitivity estimates and unrealistic Representative Concentration Pathways.

Future US climate research will likely focus on improving our understanding of phenomena such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the El Nino Southern Oscillation, the various ocean current systems, underwater volcanism, clouds, climate sensitivity, forcings and feedbacks. There will likely also be attempts to develop a climate model which actually models the climate.

Future climate research contracts should require that the researchers provide open access to all project data, computer codes and the statistical analyses conducted to demonstrate the significance of the research results. Projects involving human subjects should code subject names, but provide all other subject characteristics.

Climate researchers have a history of unwillingness to provide access to all of the information which would be required to replicate the project results, as reflected in the Climategate e-mails. Climate research also has a history of shoddy and inappropriate statistical analysis, as reported by Steve McIntyre and William Briggs among others. This situation will need to be reversed to restore confidence in climate research.

A reproducibility crisis affects numerous scientific disciplines, including climate science. It certainly is not necessary that every scientific result be reproduced, but it is necessary that they be reproducible, and that the information required to conduct a reproduction effort be available. Certainly, some climate research will produce surprising or even shocking results. There will likely be efforts to reproduce such results to ensure that they are not erroneous. Irreproducible research results are of no value and their use in the development of government policy is totally inappropriate.

Climate researchers who do not comply with full disclosure should not be permitted to participate in future climate research efforts.