Climate Policy Priorities 2025 - ORIGINAL CONTENT

Current US climate policy is aligned with the UN climate objectives embodied in the 2015 Paris Accords. It is focused on Net Zero by 2050, “All-electric Everything” by 2050, ending the use of fossil fuels, transitioning to an electric grid powered by wind and solar and a transportation system reliant on electric vehicles. Current policies provide substantial incentives for wind and solar generation, electricity storage, electric vehicles and electric heat pumps. Fundamental to these policies is the 2007 Supreme Court finding that CO2 is a pollutant and the 2009 EPA Endangerment Finding regarding CO2.

The incoming Trump Administration is not supportive of the UN climate objectives. It has several climate and energy policy revision priorities it intends to pursue rapidly and aggressively. Its first action is likely to be withdrawal from the Paris Accords and cessation of funding of the UN Green Climate Fund. The Administration is being encouraged to submit the Paris Accords to the Senate as a treaty, which the Senate would almost certainly fail to approve.

The Administration is also likely to seek reversal of the EPA Endangerment Finding which is not in compliance with the requirements of the Clean Air Act under which it was issued. The CAA requires EPA to rely on its own research (not the IPCC) and to issue a National Ambient Air Quality Standard for CO2, which has not been done in the 15 years since the Finding. The Administration might also seek to reverse the Supreme Court finding in the wake of the Court’s Chevron Deference position. The Administration will also seek withdrawal of the EPA Powerplant Rule which would require installation of CCS systems on coal and natural gas electric generators or their retirement.

The Trump Administration will seek to eliminate or drastically reduce incentives for electric grid conversion to renewable generation, for electric vehicles and charging infrastructure, and for natural gas and propane appliance and equipment replacement with electric appliances and equipment. These incentives are currently being debt funded, adding to current government deficits and the national debt. The incentives for parallel electric grid infrastructure and for parallel vehicle charging infrastructure add to inflation as they unnecessarily duplicate existing infrastructure without increasing utility. These incentives also distort markets, placing existing businesses in competition with government incentivized businesses.

The Trump Administration will also seek to get government out of the way of US fossil energy exploration and production activities. It will resume the legally required oil and gas lease sales on federal land and offshore. The Administration will also attempt to reverse the recent Biden ban on offshore oil and gas exploration and production  It will likely support oil and gas pipeline construction, including the Keystone XL pipeline, and end the current moratorium on LNG sales.

The previous Trump Administration ended the practice of “sue and settle” used by US EPA to resolve issues in its favor in cooperation with environmental advocacy groups. The practice was resumed under the current Administration and has metastasized to other agencies. Trump will again end the practice and might attempt to have it banned by law to prevent its readoption in the future.

The new Department of Government Efficiency will likely seek to make significant impacts on US EPA and US DOE, as well as on NOAA and NASA GISS, regarding their involvement in climate and energy policy.