Cautionary Tales - ORIGINAL CONTENT

The consensed climate science community and their allies in government, environmental organizations and the media are focused on Net Zero by 2050.  They assert that solar and wind can power an economical, stable and reliable electric grid and that all energy end uses can be powered electrically. Neither of those assertions has been demonstrated, nor is there a plan to achieve Net Zero by 2050.

However, there are numerous cautionary tales which should cause them to question their assertions. Two relatively small and relatively isolated communities built their electric systems to rely on renewable generation plus storage. Both have failed to achieve stability and reliability.

El Heirro in the Canary Islands built a system consisting of wind turbines and a pumped hydro storage reservoir system. The system, designed to provide all of the island’s electricity, has averaged approximately 50% and has required backup from a diesel generator system. The island does not have the potential to replace its non-electric energy consumption with additional electricity generation which would require more than quadrupling the island’s generating and storage capacity.

The community of Broken Hill NSW, Australia has a 36 MW load which is served by ~200 MW of wind capacity,,~60 MW  of solar PV and ~50 MW / 100 MWh battery storage system, plus backup diesel turbine generators. While Broken Hill had more than adequate generating capacity, it experienced blackouts when it lost connection to the larger grid, which provided reliability services. While generating capacity is ~7 times load, storage capacity is woefully inadequate.

Every jurisdiction which has installed renewable generation has experienced increased electricity rates and the rates have continued to increase as the percentage of renewable generation has increased. The UK and Germany have both experienced electric rate increases by a factor of 3-4, which have made many of their industries uncompetitive and have caused energy poverty to spread among their populations.

California has the highest electric rates of the contiguous 48 states and frequently produces excess solar generation which must be sold at discounted prices or wasted, while it must also import electricity during periods of high demand.  California’s storage capacity is woefully inadequate to time shift generation to periods of high demand.

Numerous states on the US East Coast have had offshore wind installations cancelled because the existing contracts had become uneconomic. Recent proposed contracts are for delivered wholesale electricity prices 3-4 times the current wholesale cost of electricity in the states.

It is highly likely that the incoming Trump Administration will dramatically reduce or eliminate the federal subsidies for renewable generation, particularly offshore wind, and for grid-scale storage. It is also highly likely that the Trump Administration will reduce or eliminate subsidies and incentives for residential and commercial gas to electric appliance and equipment conversions to achieve “all-electric everything”.

Industries which depend on federal or state subsidies and incentives are subject to changes in the political priorities of the current political administrations, as well as the interest of the buying public in their products and services. The buying public has clearly lost some of its enthusiasm for electric vehicles and the all-electric everything transition.