Pyramid or Scheme

A pyramid is an inherently stable structure built upon a broad base which tapers toward a point at its top. A pyramid scheme is an inherently unstable structure built upon a point and expanding to a broad top.

Perhaps the most famous pyramids are those in Egypt, which are a testament to the stability and durability of the structural form. Perhaps the most famous pyramid scheme is the scheme created by Charles Ponzi and later emulated by Bernard Madoff, which are a testament to the instability of the inverted pyramid. The more common pyramid schemes are the numerous multi-level marketing schemes, which “grow like Topsy” and then rapidly topple like a “House of Cards”.

The catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) or catastrophic anthropogenic climate change (CACC) science is in many ways similar to a pyramid scheme. It is based on a small body of evidence which is used to support a growing collection of estimates used to concoct an even more rapidly growing collection of projections of future catastrophes. These projected future catastrophes are based on the outputs of unverified climate models built upon hindcast comparisons to “adjusted” temperature measurements and fed with uncertain climate sensitivities, forcings and feedbacks.

The structural pyramid converges to a point at its top upon completion. The pyramid scheme diverges from a point at its base to a broad but undefined top prior to its collapse. The weakness of the base of CAGW / CACC science is illustrated by the numerous failed short-term predictions based on that science. The predictions of an ice-free Arctic and of the end of snow are classic examples.

The consensed climate science community has shifted its efforts toward longer term projections which would likely not be falsifiable in their lifetimes. These longer term projections include more frequent and more intense tropical cyclones, tornadoes, droughts and floods, more extreme temperatures, melting glaciers and Arctic and Antarctic ice caps, coastal and island inundation, crop failures and even the end of human civilization.

These long-term extreme projections become the basis for demands to end human fossil fuel use, eliminate animal husbandry, institute global governance with massive redistribution of wealth and income and control and reduce global population. The actions would require investments of tens of trillions of dollars combined with massive personal and economic turmoil.

It is amazing to contemplate that these extreme projections and planned massive dislocations are built upon a very narrow knowledge base combined with an ever-expanding series of estimates of climate sensitivity, climate feedbacks, Representative Concentration Pathways, fed into an ensemble of unverified climate models, most of which have been effectively falsified by the actual climate observations over the most recent climate period.

It is not too late in the political process to begin efforts to expand the scientific knowledge base upon which the CAGW / CACC meme is based, while reducing the magnitude of the overhanging mass of estimates, unverified climate models and hypothetical “scary scenarios” and replacing them with information more reliably supported by the expanded scientific knowledge base.