Narratives and Coincidences

Global temperatures began rising in 2014, leading ultimately to the proclamation of 2014 and later 2015 as the warmest years in the instrumental record. The narrative propounded by the consensed climate science community was that this temperature increase was a continuation of the CO2-driven warming documented in the global temperature anomalies, particularly since approximately 1950. There was acknowledgement that there was also an El Nino underway, though its importance in the observed warming was largely ignored or downplayed in the ongoing narrative, which included projections that 2016 would likely displace 2015 as the warmest year in the instrumental record.

However, global temperatures began falling in February, 2016; and, falling very rapidly in May and June, 2016. The temperature trend is moving toward a moderate to strong La Nina. This temperature pattern conflicts with the narrative attribution to continuation of the CO2-driven warming. Rather, it would seem to suggest that the primary driver of the 2014-2015 rapid warming was the strong El Nino, since there has been no accompanying rapid reduction in atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Coincidentally (?), one of the most recognized names in climate science, Dr. Michael Mann, recently attempted to deflect attention from this deviation from the narrative by declaring to a hearing of the Democratic Platform Drafting Committee that: “What is disconcerting to me and so many of my colleagues is that these tools that we’ve spent years developing increasingly are unnecessary because we can see climate change, the impacts of climate change, now, playing out in real time, on our television screens, in the 24-hour news cycle.”

Mann might more accurately have said that we see extreme weather events being played up in real time in the media; and; attributed, without any scientific basis, to climate change. This is particularly true since the actual frequency and severity of “extreme weather events” has been stable or declining in recent decades.

I am reminded of a quote from Carl Sandburg: “If the facts are against you, argue the law. If the law is against you, argue the facts. If the law and the facts are against you, pound the table and yell like hell”. Dr. Mann’s Twitter history would suggest that he is a screamer.